Juliana Delgado, Science Coordinator, Northern Andes and Southern Central America
jdelgado@tnc.org

Background

Quantified results from an assessment of development options can identify trade-offs between stakeholders’ objectives. Objective, data-based results can allow decision-makers to understand these trade-offs and to potentially identify options that provide relatively balanced outcomes. A range of available options can thus inform stakeholder dialogue and be incorporated into planning and decision-making processes to inform and guide policy. This case study highlights the process of transferring results and stakeholder dialogue into actions in Colombia using the Hydropower by Design (HbD) process.

The Magdalena River basin is the 5th largest river in South America, forming the economic, social, and cultural heart of Colombia.¹ Effective management of the basin is a national development priority, as it is closely linked to food security, energy production, and water management. As of 2014, Colombia’s hydropower system generated nearly 45,000 GWh, representing nearly 70% of total generation in the country, from a total installed capacity of 16 GW². The majority of Colombia’s hydropower (60%) is within the Magdalena basin and most projected expansion will also occur within the basin³.

Map 1. The Magdalena-Cauca Basin and tributaries

Summary of Approach

Results from the tradeoff, and other, analyses can be presented to stakeholders and decision-makers. This dialogue ideally occurs throughout the process, not just at the beginning and end. Consistent engagement will allow for interim review and adjustment so that the overall HbD process is transparent and iterative. If the HbD process is well positioned to influence decisions, the results can then be used to guide official planning, siting decisions, licensing processes and mitigation investments.

Decision-making processes in Colombia have changed significantly over time, so the Conservancy continuously adapts its approach to meet the evolving needs of government agencies and the hydropower sector. Until 1994, electricity development in Colombia was centrally planned and managed⁴.. Then, energy sector reforms opened the market to private investment. To meet growing demand for energy following the reforms, the Planning Unit of Mining and Energy (UPME), develops forecasts of energy demand and fifteen-year reference scenarios for capacity expansion each year. Hydropower companied may present projects and upload them to an UPME database, which UPME can use to run an optimization model to select the best configuration of projects based only on energy generation and cost. Once a hydropower project is selected, it must obtain an environmental license before it is approved by the government for buildout. A national law recently legislated that hydropower projects over 100MW must be licensed by ANLA, while the regional environmental authority issues licenses projects under 100MW.

This shift in approach from project development to basin planning demonstrates the need for a system-scale approach like HbD which can identify potential conflicts earlier on than single project-based approaches alone, which allows for more flexibility to identify alternatives; it can also produce operational efficiencies, such as for cascade operations, sediment passage, environmental flows, and safety of dam design; finally, it can produce alternative configurations of projects that allows preservation of other values, including environmental and social values.⁵.

To engage with government in efforts to support the ecological health of the basin, Conservancy tools like SIMA, the decision support system for the Magdalena basin, provide science-based visualization of potential future development scenarios. The results from the TNC-PSR business case filled a gap in the HbD approach: how to work with an inventory of projects from the basin-scale that makes sense from a modern engineering perspective. Using state-of-the-art engineering science applied to systems level analysis, the results from TNC-PSR may be paired with the hydropower industry’s robust tools and complement SIMA’s approach to basin-wide cumulative analysis. More information on how SIMA was developed can be found in the case study entitled Decision-support tool development through stakeholder engagement in the Magdalena-Cauca Basin of Colombia.

The first iteration of SIMA revealed the need for ongoing improvement of the information foundation, which prioritizes developing metrics understood by stakeholders as representative of their relevant interests or objective, which will continue to strengthen the ability of the HbD approach to contribute to basin wide decision-making. The iterative design process is key to the evolving process of transferring results to action. Through incremental improvements, the Conservancy can initiate a prototype, solicit feedback, and refine SIMA’s capabilities to align with user needs. Now, due to iterations on the design process of SIMA and developing results from the quantitative analysis, findings are shared with the government in formats explicitly tailored to meet their needs for cumulative impact assessment.

Products/Results/Outcomes

An example outcome of SIMA’s application to inform decisions that minimize potential impacts comes from a joint exercise with the National Environmental Licensing Authority (ANLA) to examine a proposed 1 GW hydroelectric plant. The joint effort permitted the Conservancy to develop a more rigorous study as it incorporated in SIMA basic technical parameters from the actual proposed project. The analyses also included official information from Colombian institutes on priority ecosystems such as Tropical Dry Forest.

ANLA had originally denied the license to develop this project in 2016, but a proponent of the dam requested a reconsideration of the decision. Using data from the existing environmental impact assessments, databases, regional authorities, environmental research institutions, and SIMA’s results, ANLA found that the dam would have significant negative environmental effects, including impacting important areas of Tropical Dry Forest. After considering this information, ANLA denied the license again.

SIMA allows stakeholders to compare alternative development scenarios to identify pathways that reduce impact while achieving increased installed hydropower capacity in the Colombian national energy system. Through rigorous interdisciplinary analysis and demonstration projects, the Conservancy will continue to quantitatively assess sustainable hydropower scenarios that acknowledge the connections between conservation, economy, and human-wellbeing.

This innovative work in the Magdalena basin has been featured at the South-South Exchange sponsored by IDB and the Conservancy in Colombia, the International Association of Impact Assessment Symposium on Sustainable Mega-Infrastructure and Impact assessment in Panama, and the International Association for Impact Assessment (IAIA) Symposium in Canada. Communicating our findings through public events and scientific papers, as well as more general communications, increases the audience of government representatives, researchers, international financing institutions and hydropower developers learning about the HbD tools and methodologies.

Next Steps in the Work

This experience of applying data-driven results through the HbD process to support decision-makers will inform future approaches to communicating the outcomes of cumulative impact assessments. Going forward, the Conservancy will work with ANLA to define results and analysis for projects they are evaluating and develop pathways to include the results of SIMA to support licensing processes. The Conservancy will also work with regional environmental authorities to examine how they use SIMA and identify areas for improved alignment of the software capabilities with user needs. Future iterations will focus on bringing updated projects into SIMA as reference for development scenarios, and clarifying the possibilities and constraints of the tool to users.

Strengths and Weaknesses of the Approach

Strengths: SIMA presents an opportunity to promote the efficient use of existing regulations by sharing information on how decisions are made. This transparency ensures that all stakeholders understand why decisions are made, improving governance processes and potentially strengthening public confidence in projects that are approved. A well-defined working relationship with licensing agencies can facilitate the ability for users to deliver this approach.

Weaknesses: This case demonstrates a shift in thinking for licensing that may take place if governments adopt a basin-level planning approach. However, this approach may face challenges if licenses are granted on a project-by-project basis, without demand to consider cumulative impacts. The hydropower sector may also have concerns that licensing decisions will be exclusively based on SIMA which currently is not an official tool. However, SIMA complements information already used by decision-makers. Another concern may be that complex metrics or tools may make findings difficult to understand and interpret. Lastly, without regulations requiring assessments to consider and address social and environmental impacts, the drive to apply scientific findings to improve hydropower development policy may be limited in other contexts.

Suggestions for Others Considering a Similar Approach

For others seeking to effectively transfer HbD results and dialogue with stakeholders and decision-makers, developing a long-term strategy is key. In a context where the staff of government entities changes rapidly, organizations that can consistently dedicate time and staff to develop HbD and influence high-level policy is critical. This was the case in Colombia with amending the Energy Regulatory Commission’s bidding process to incorporate types of sustainable energy that are compatible with achieving broader conservation goals. Similarly, updating policy instruments with technology that promotes integrated basin approaches, such as the 1970 national inventory of potential hydropower projects in Colombia, requires diligent, long-term attention.

Lastly, in an area with numerous potential dams, planners have more degrees of freedom to identify options for improved outcomes than in smaller areas with only a few dams under consideration. A large geographic scope and many possible projects also entails significant efforts and require a robust information foundation. While stakeholders will always ask for more information, in heavily altered basins anticipating further development, beginning the process of HbD is important to reduce risks for people and nature. An initial pilot project within a subset of the area may be needed to test and demonstrate HbD analytical approaches, and iterations of the HbD approach over the course of sustainable energy planning allow for review and adjustment to incorporate different stakeholder voices.